Reference

METRICS GLOSSARY

Every term we use, defined in plain language. If you've ever wondered what a Form Score, reliability percentage or coefficient of variation actually means, start here.

Form Score: A 0–100 composite ranking how strong and dependable a player's recent production is, adjusted for matchup context. A research shortcut for focusing attention — not a prediction.
Recent Form (L12): A rolling average over a player's most recent twelve games, with gentle recency weighting so the latest outings carry slightly more influence. Our primary lens for current level.
Consistency: How tightly a player's recent games cluster around their average. High consistency means predictable output; low consistency means wide swings from night to night.
Coefficient of Variation (CV): The standard deviation of recent games divided by the average. A scale-free measure of spread that lets us compare consistency fairly across players and stat types.
Reliability %: An intuitive, higher-is-better restatement of consistency. A '90% reliable' player is one whose recent games cluster tightly around their projection.
Projection: The expected value for a player's stat in the upcoming game, built from recent form and adjusted for opponent, pace, venue and role.
Matchup Context: Adjustments applied to a baseline projection for opponent strength and tendencies, expected game pace, home/away, rest, and role.
Head-to-Head: A player's historical output against a specific opponent, used as a light tiebreaker rather than a headline — small samples are treated skeptically.
Injury Filter: The step that removes players listed as out, injured, or suspended before any analysis, so only expected-active athletes are considered.
Total Bases: A baseball metric summing the bases from a hitter's hits (single = 1, double = 2, triple = 3, home run = 4), a compact measure of offensive production.
Baseline: A sensible reference level for a player's role against which recent form is compared, so a role player and a star are each judged on a fair scale.
Pace: How many possessions or opportunities a game is expected to produce. Higher pace inflates volume statistics for everyone; lower pace suppresses them.